In the second half of 2021, it should have entered the peak season for traditional consumer electronics products, but due to the increase in terminal inventory in the early stage, the demand has not kept up, resulting in today’s industry chain is in the stage of destocking, the semiconductor industry as an upstream industry. It has also entered a relatively sluggish market stage, in which semiconductor packaging and testing manufacturers have experienced a sharp decline in orders from full production and full sales, and the feeling is particularly obvious.
At the same time, outbreaks have occurred in key cities in the domestic semiconductor packaging and testing supply chain, including Suzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Shanghai, Kunshan, etc., which have also had a considerable impact on the production, operation, logistics and transportation of enterprises. It can be said,At this stage, most domestic semiconductor packaging and testing manufacturers are facing dual pressures from both sides of supply and demand.
It is worth mentioning that although the overall situation is not optimistic, there are still some subdivided application fields in a state of rapid development, and memory is one of the representative fields. At present, the localization rate of domestic memory is low, but the overall industry chain already has very big progress,Entering the stage of rapid volume expansion and continuous production expansionthe prospects are very bright.
YMTC and Changxin Storage capacity increase rapidly
As we all know, memory applications are very extensive, and the overall market space is huge. According to the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global semiconductor sales in 2021 will reach US$555.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and annual shipments will reach 1.15 trillion. Among them, storage product sales were US$153.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%.
At the same time, China is the world’s largest consumer of memory chips, but my country’s memory market has always been monopolized by American, Japanese and Korean companies such as Samsung, Toshiba, SK Hynix, and Micron. High dependence on imports is a problem we have to face.
In order to get rid of this status quo, a number of 100 billion-level projects, represented by Yangtze River Storage and Changxin Storage, emerged in China, and led the domestic storage industry to achieve a breakthrough from 0 to 1, breaking the dependence on imports.
In terms of 3D NAND Flash, as the main force in overcoming NAND technology in China, Cheng Weihua, chief operating officer of YMTC, revealed in his speech in September 2021 that YMTC has shipped more than 300 million 64-layer flash memory particles. The 128-layer QLC is ready for mass production, the TLC yield has reached a very high level, and the products have also entered high-end smartphones and enterprise-level applications.
In addition, the first-phase production capacity of Yangtze Memory’s Wuhan memory base has been stably mass-produced. According to its production capacity plan, the monthly production capacity is expected to reach 100,000 pieces by 2021. On June 20, 2020, the second phase of the National Memory Base Project implemented by Changjiang Storage started construction in Wuhan East Lake High-tech Zone. It is planned to produce 200,000 memory chip products per month. After the production is completed, the total monthly production capacity of the first phase of the project will reach 300,000. piece.
Minsheng Securities estimated in the research report based on the capacity planning of YMTC that the global market share of YMTC will reach about 6% in 2025, which is expected to break the pattern of international monopoly and lead the rise of the domestic NAND industry.
In terms of DRAM, Changxin Storage, as the leader of domestic DRAM memory, according to CITIC Securities, its production capacity will expand from 40,000 pieces/month in early 2021 to 125,000 pieces/month in 2022-2023.
Hefei Production and Investment Group also stated at the end of October 2021 that as of now, the Hefei Changxin 12-inch memory wafer manufacturing base project has reached the expected production capacity ahead of schedule, achieving a key leap from production to mass production to mass sales, effectively filling domestic DRAM market, laying the foundation for the next step of independent research and development and the accelerated development of product industrialization.
On June 28, 2021, the second phase of the Changxin project started construction. Based on the first phase of the project, a memory wafer R&D and manufacturing plant will be expanded. It is understood that the Changxin project is divided into three phases to build three 12-inch DRAM memory fabs to build a memory IDM localization base that integrates R&D, production and sales. moon.
At present, the domestic memory industry has started a journey from 1 to N. Jiwei.com has previously reported that in the stage from 0 to 1, in order to ensure smooth mass production, manufacturers need to use more mature and leading suppliers. , and from the stage 1 to N, more upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain are needed to join in to establish a safe and reliable domestic memory industry chain. It is foreseeable that with the stable mass production and active expansion of Changjiang Storage and Changxin Storage, it is bound to bring huge development opportunities to local enterprises in packaging and testing, equipment, materials and other links.
Domestic packaging and testing manufacturers actively expand production
At present, the world’s leading memory manufacturers, including Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, operate in the IDM mode. However, YMTC and Changxin Storage are still in their infancy.There is no perfect internal packaging capabilitychoose to outsource packaging to OSAT manufacturers, which gives domestic OSAT manufacturers a business opportunity.
Out of optimism about the memory packaging market, many domestic packaging and testing manufacturers represented by Tongfu Microelectronics, Deep Technology (Payton Technology), Taiji Industry, and Huatian Technologybig bets.
Tongfu Microelectronics regards memory packaging and testing as a key area of its future development, and has formed strategic partners with Changjiang Storage and Changxin Storage, and has produced storage products on a large scale. Tongfu Microelectronics stated in its annual report that the company is in the first domestic team in the field of memory packaging and testing, and its business progress is ahead of its peers. It has a high degree of cooperation with domestic memory chip manufacturers, and has a layout in DRAM and NAND. end and server. With the gradual release of customer capacity, the demand for memory packaging and testing will increase significantly in the future.
Deep Technology also pointed out in the annual report that as domestic storage manufacturers have successively achieved effective production capacity, the prosperity of semiconductor manufacturing (including foundry and packaging and testing) continues to rise. In 2020, Shenzhen Technology and the second phase of the National Integrated Circuit Fund, Hefei Economic Development, and CLP Juxin jointly registered and established Hefei Payton Storage Technology Co., Ltd. In 2021, the company raised a net amount of 1.462 billion yuan through non-public offerings. The raised funds are planned to be used for the implementation of the Hefei Payton Storage Project, which undertakes chip, particle packaging testing and corresponding module business. The project was also officially launched in December 2021. Put into production, and is continuing to increase the company’s memory chip supporting packaging and testing capacity.
In 2021, Huatian Technology completed the non-public offering of stock financing, raising a net amount of 5.048 billion yuan, of which 1.38 billion yuan was invested in storage and radio frequency integrated circuit packaging and testing industrialization projects.
Changdian Technology also stated in its annual report that in the semiconductor storage market, Changdian Technology’s packaging and testing services cover DRAM, Flash and other memory chip products. Among them, Xingke Jinpeng Factory has more than 20 years of experience in mass production of memory packaging. 16-layer NAND Flash stacking, 35um ultra-thin chip process capability, Hybrid special-shaped stacking, etc., are in a leading position in the domestic industry.
According to people familiar with the matter, at present, the supporting packaging and testing business of Changjiang Storage is mainly completed by its subsidiary Unisplendour Hongmao, and the second supplier is Ankor. Fu Microelectronics, the two are also actively cultivating domestic supporting suppliers, and planning to build their own packaging and testing production lines, but in the short term, they will still use external packaging and testing suppliers for packaging.It is expected that its supporting packaging and testing suppliers will usher in good development in the next few years.
In this regard, Yole also pointed out in its memory packaging report that the rise of memory chips in the Chinese mainland market, the development of flip-chip DRAM and 3D stacking technology will bring significant benefits to local packaging manufacturers. The revenue contribution of storage vendors from mainland China to OSAT vendors can grow from less than $100 million in 2020 to about $1.1 billion in 2026, representing a CAGR of 55% from 2020 to 2026.
It is foreseeable that the localization of memory is an inevitable trend, and China is already a new force in the memory market. With the rise of the domestic memory industry, the market demand for supporting industry chains will continue to increase. Ziguang Hongmao and Tongfu Companies that have made early deployments such as Microelectronics and Shenzhen Technology are also expected to enjoy the dividend period of the domestic memory chip packaging and testing market.